Did geography class call Bin Laden's lair?
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Amid the reports of terrorist leader Osama Bin Laden's death, a geography journal's 2009 study detailing his likely sort of hide-out has belatedly drawn interest from the science media.
First reported by USA TODAY in February of 2009, after months of waiting for the study's publication, the MIT International Review analysis led by UCLA's Thomas Gillespie, used a geographical tracking methodology, usually used to predict where rare animal species hide, to suggest that after the 2001 invasion of Afghanistan, Bin Laden was likely to take refuge in a walled urban compound, rather than a rural cave.
The 2009 story noted experts' skepticism about the study pinning the terrorist chief's exact location, alongside their interest in the satellite-tracking method it described.
We caught up with Gillespie on Monday and asked him a few questions:
Q: So what's your reaction to the news?
A: "I was surprised he (Bin Laden) went with the super-compound. Seems like a really bad choice. Not a good way to hide out."
"I was surprised he (Bin Laden) was so far from the border based on some of the look at drone attacks we have done lately." (For more on this, see below.)
Q: Some folks are looking at your study and complaining you pinned Bin Laden to a border town, not the city closer to Islamabad where he was eventually found.
A: "Well, the study actually talked about where Bin Laden might be in the time period right after the invasion of Afghanistan, not nine years later. But what we said was more important was the methodology we were using."
Q: How well did you do?
A: "I looked at some of the articles. Seems like some things were pretty close. A big house, with high walls in a city, not a cave."
Q: Did people still think he was living in a cave?
A: "I got that all the time. 'Man, he's living in a cave.' I just gave up trying to talk people out of it. But have you ever tried living in a cave? It's just crazy."
Folks who missed Gillespie's study when we first reported it may also be interested in one of his latest projects, looking at drone attack patterns in Afghanistan. A draft of the study says:
This research examines the utility of satellite imagery to identify the location and extent of damage from drone bombings in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas. First, we identify the regions with the highest incidence and density of drone bombing activity. Second, we systematically search the area to see if there is any evidence of bombing damage and determine the exact locations of US military air strikes. Finally, we assess the potential for satellite imagery to monitor the region in order to increase transparency and security in the region.
The study team looked at drone strike locations from 2004 to 2009 compiled by the Center for American Progress, and then searched satellite imagery of the locales, looking for the aftermath.
There were 16 drone bombings in Miram Shah in North Waziristan before January 1, 2010. There were an estimated 212 people killed in Miram Shah, which was the highest number in all cities in the FATA. A systematic search was undertaken of the acquired QuickBird 2 image in 1 (square kilometer) grids that contained potential drone bombing sites. We identified two structures as potential sites where a drone bombing might have occurred.
The team also captured an image of a drone in flight from the satellite pictures, southwest of Miranm Shah. "We believe that this is the first satellite image of a drone in the FATA. This suggests that there is a high density of drones in the region because this snapshot was captured during the daytime in a relatively small area."
Overall, the report suggests that outside observers could monitor the effects of drone attacks, allowing for an independent check of U.S. and Pakistani reports of progress in the region. "In theory, US policy in southern Afghanistan and the FATA can be assessed using remote sensing imagery over a number of spatial scales," concludes the study.
See photos of: Pakistan
